GameStop

Everybody is talking about this stock or company – feels like recent frenzies in Korean Stock Exchange got amplified at US with hedge funds vs community with this stock.

Watching this as a person who majored business twice, regularly watching what is happening in KSE, and working in game industry, makes me have multiple thoughts and personal memories/histories crossed over.

I think the true winners of this run is any GameStop employee who holds lots of shares, and stock brokerage who gets any fees if any… as old Korean saying the billiard shop owner wins the billiard game. ๐Ÿ™‚

์š”์ฆ˜ ๊ณ ๊ตญ์˜ ์ง€์ธ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ์„œ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋‘˜์”ฉ GameStop์ด ๋ญ๋ƒ ์•„๋Š”๊ฒŒ ์žˆ๋ƒ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋Œ€ํ™”๋“ค์ด ์ข…์ข… ์˜ค๊ฐ€๋Š” ์ค‘ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ์ƒ๊ฐ๋“ค์ด ๋‚˜์„œ ํ•œ๋ฒˆ ๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ์ •๋ฆฌ๋„ ์•„๋‹ˆ๊ณ  ์ญˆ์šฑ ์ƒ๊ฐ์—†์ด ๋‚˜์—ด ํ•ด๋ณผ๋ž€๋‹ค…ใ…Žใ…Žใ…Ž (Full disclosure: ๋ณธ์ธ์€ GameStop์ฃผ์‹ 1์ฃผ๋„ ์—†์Œ…ใ…Ž)

GameStop

GameStop์€ -์ด๋Ÿฐ๋งํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ณ ์ธ๋ฌผ์ด์ง€๋งŒ – ํ•œ๊ตญ์œผ๋กœ ์น˜์ž๋ฉด ์ŒํŒ”๋…„๋„ ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ ๊ฐ€๊ฒŒ ์ฒด์ธ๊ณผ ๋น„์Šทํ•œ ์‚ฌ์—…๋ชจ๋ธ์ด๋‹ค… ๋ญ ํ•œ๊ตญ์œผ๋กœ ์น˜์ž๋ฉด ์šฉ์‚ฐ/๊ตญ์ „์— ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒŒ์ž„์ƒต์ด ์ „๊ตญ ์ฒด์ธ์œผ๋กœ ๋˜์–ด์žˆ๋Š” ํ˜•ํƒœ.. (ํ˜น์‹œ ๋Œ€์น˜๋™์—์„œ ์€๋งˆ์ƒ๊ฐ€ 2์ธต์— ์žˆ๋˜ ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ๋‚˜ ์˜๋งจ ์†Œํ”„ํŠธ์˜€๋‚˜ ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ์˜€๋‚˜..๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ์–ตํ•˜์‹œ๋Š” ๋ถ„์€…๋‚˜์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๊ณ ์ธ๋ฌผ…ใ…‹ใ…‹ใ…‹) ๊ฒŒ์ž„ ์ „๋ฌธ retailer์ด์ง€๋งŒ ํ•œํŽธ ๊ฒŒ์ž„๋•๋“ค์˜ ๋™๋„ค์˜ social์žฅ์†Œ์ด๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•จ….

๋‚˜๋ฆ„ ๊ฑด์„คํ•œ retail ์ด๊ณ  ์—…๋ฌด์ ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์‚ฌ์—…์—์„œ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ฑ„๋„ ํŒŒํŠธ๋„ˆ์ด๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด ์—ญ์‹œ ๋ชจ๋“  ์ œํ’ˆ์˜ ํŒ๋งค ๋ฐ ์œ ํ†ต์ด online์œผ๋กœ ๋„˜์–ด๊ฐ€๋Š” (์•„๋งˆ์กดํ™” [์ œํ’ˆ ๊ตฌ๋งค] ํ˜น์€ ์• ํ”Œํ™”[์ปจํ…์ธ ์˜ ๋””์ง€ํ„ธ ์œ ํ†ต-์Œ์•…์‚ฐ์—…]) ์‹œ๋Œ€์˜ ํ๋ฆ„์— ์ œ์ผ ํฌ๊ฒŒ ํƒ€๊ฒฉ๋ฐ›๋Š” ํšŒ์‚ฌ์ด๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•˜๋‹ค. ์—…์นœ๋ฐ ๋ฅ์นœ๊ฒฉ์œผ๋กœ ์ด ์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜ ์‹œ๊ตญ์—์„œ ๋ฐ›๋Š” ํƒ€๊ฒฉ๋„ ์ƒ๋‹นํ• ๋“ฏ ํ•˜๋‹ค..

์ด ๋ชจ๋“ ๊ฒŒ ์˜จ๋ผ์ธ์œผ๋กœ ๋„˜์–ด๊ฐ€๋Š”๊ฒŒ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋ฌด์„œ์šด์ง€๋Š” ๋‹ค์—†์–ด์ง„ ๋ ˆ์ฝ”๋“œ ์ƒต๋“ค์„ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋ฉด ๋ ๋“ฏ… ํ•œํŽธ ๋‚˜๋„ ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰์œผ๋กœ GameStop์—์„œ ๋ญ˜ ์‚ฌ๋ณธ๊ฑด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์œ ํ•™ ๋‚˜์˜ค์ž ๋งˆ์ž ์‚ฐ PlayStation2 ๋ฐ ๋ช‡๋ช‡ CD๊ฒŒ์ž„์ธ๋“ฏ ํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ทธ ํ›„๋ก  ์˜จ๋ผ์ธ์œผ๋กœ CD๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ๋‹ค๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋”๋‹ˆ ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ์€ ์ด์   ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฑธ ๋‹ค์šด๋กœ๋“œ๋กœ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋‹ˆ.. – ํ•œํŽธ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋น„์Šทํ•œ ๊ฒŒ์ž„ ์ „๋ฌธ retailer๋“ค์€ ์ „์„ธ๊ณ„์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋‹ค ์œ„ํƒœ์œ„ํƒœํ•˜๋‹ค..

Short Hedge Fund vs. ๊ฐœ๋ฏธ

ํ•œ๋™์•ˆ ์ด๊ฑธ (์˜ˆ, Tesla, ๊ทผ๋ก€์—” ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ Luckin Coffee) ๋ณด๋ฉด์„œ ๋“  ์ƒ๊ฐ์€ ์ด๊ฑด ์†Œ์œ„๋งํ•˜๋Š” ‘ ๊ณต๋งค๋„ ์ž‘์ „’+ํƒ์‚ฌ ์ €๋„๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์ด formalํ•œ ํ˜•์‹์œผ๋กœ ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์ง€๋Š”๊ฒŒ ์•„๋‹๊นŒ ์ƒ๊ฐ์„ ํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋งํ• ๊ฐ ํ˜น์€ ํญ๋ฝ๊ฐ์ด ์žˆ์–ด๋ณด์ด๋Š” ์ฃผ์‹์— short์„ ๊ฑฐ๋Š” ๋ฐ ๋‹จ์ˆœํžˆ ์ž‘์ „์„ ์กฐ์šฉํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ผ๋ถ€ ๊ทธ๋ฃน๋งŒ ํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ๋Œ€๋†“๊ณ  ๊ณต๊ฐœํ•˜๋ฉฐ ํ•˜๋Š” ์…ˆ.. (์ข‹์€๋ง๋กœ๋Š” ํ–‰๋™์ฃผ์˜๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•ด์•ผํ•˜๋‚˜?)

์˜ˆ์ „์— ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ fund์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜์—์„œ ๋งŒ๋“  presentation์ž๋ฃŒ๋“ค ๋– ๋‹ค๋‹ˆ๋Š”๊ฑธ ์ฝ์–ด๋ณธ์  ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ ์ •๋ง ๋งŽ์ด ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ํ•œ๋“ฏํ•˜๋‹ค.. (์ด๋Ÿฌ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๊ทผ๊ฑฐ๋กœ ์ด ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋Š” ๋ฏธ๋ž˜๊ฐ€ ์—†๋‹ค๋“ ์ง€, ์˜์‹ฌ์Šค๋Ÿฝ๋‹ค๋“ ์ง€, ์†์ด๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋“ ์ง€์˜ ํญ๋กœ) ๊ทผ๋ฐ ์ด๋ฒˆ์—๋„ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜๊ฐ€ GameStop์— ๋ถˆ์„ ์ง€๋ฅด๋ ค๊ณ  ๊ธฐ๋ฆ„์„ ๋ถ€์› ๊ฑด๋งŒ ๊ดœ์‹œ๋ฆฌ ๋ถˆ๋˜ฅ์ด ‘์š”๋†ˆ๋“ค ํ•œ๋ฒˆ ์ฃฝ์—ฌ๋ณด์ž’๊ณ  ๋ค๋ฒผ๋“  ๊ฐœ๋ฏธ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์—ญํ’์„ ๋งž๋Š”๊ผด.. (Melvin Capital์€ ๋ฐฑ๊ธฐํˆฌํ•ญ) ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๊ฒŒ ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ํ•œ๊ตญ์—์„œ์˜ ๊ฐœ๋ฏธ๋™ํ•™์šด๋™๊ณผ ๋น„์Šทํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์‹œ์ž‘๋œ๋“ฏํ•˜๋‹ค.

๊ฒŒ๋‹ค๊ฐ€ ๋กœ๋นˆ ํ›„๋“œ ๋“ฑ ๊ฐœ๋ฏธ๋“ค์ด ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ์ฃผ์‹๊ฑฐ๋ž˜ ์ฐฝ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ง‰ํ˜”๋‹ค ํ’€๋ฆฌ๋ฉด์„œ ํ•œํŽธ 1% vs 99% ์ •์˜/ํ‰๋“ฑ ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋‹ด๋ก ์ด ๋ฒˆ์ ธ๊ฐ€๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ณ  ์ด์   ์ •๋ถ€์—์„œ๋„ ๋ญ”๊ฐ€ ์กฐ์น˜๋ฅผ ์ทจํ•  ํƒœ์„ธ์ธ๋“ฏํ•˜๋‹ค..

(ํ•œํŽธ ๋ชจ๋‘๊ฐ€ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ•˜๊ณ  ์‚ฌ๊ณ ํŒ”๊ณ ํ•˜๋Š”๊ฑธ ๋ณด๋ฉด, 2000๋…„๋Œ€ ์ดˆ๋ฐ˜์ธ๊ฐ€ ํ•œ๊ตญ์—์„œ ํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค๊ฐ€ ๋งํ•˜๋„ค ๋งˆ๋„ค๋ฅผ ์ฑ„๊ถŒ๋‹จ์ด ๊ฒฐ์ •ํ•  ๋•Œ ์ฆˆ์Œ์— ์ „๊ตญ๋ฏผ์ด ํ•˜์ด๋‹‰์Šค ์ฃผ์‹์„ ์‚ฌ๊ณ  ํŒ”๋˜ ๊ธฐ์–ต์ด ์Šค์ณ ์ง€๋‚˜๊ฐ„๋‹ค.. ์ฝ”๋กœ๋‚˜๋กœ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด Las Vegas์— ๋ชป๊ฐ€๋‹ˆ ์ง‘์—์„œ ์ฃผ์‹์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜๋Š” ๋„๋ฐ•ํŒ์ธ๊ฐ€ ์‹ถ๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•˜๋‹ค..ใ…Žใ…Ž)

์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์ผ๋ จ์˜ ํ˜„์ƒ์„ ๋‘๊ณ  ์‹œ์žฅ๊ฐ€์„ค์ด ๊ด€์ง์— ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ”๋„ค ๋งˆ๋„ค๋ฅผ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ ํ•˜๋Š”๊ฑฐ ๊ฐ™์€๋ฐ ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ์žฅ๊ธฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ์กฐ์ •์ด ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ€์ง€ ์•Š์„๊นŒ ์‹ถ๋‹ค.. GameStop์ด ์–ด์ฐŒ Nordstrom๋ณด๋‹ค ์ปค์งˆ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒ ๋Š”๊ฐ€?… ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ์€ ๊ทธ ์žฅ๊ธฐ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ฒ„ํ‹ธ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์žฌ๋ ฅ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋งŒ ๋‚จ์•„์„œ ์ง„ํ–‰ํ•  ๊ฐ์ธ๋“ฏ..

๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ๋‹น๊ตฌ์žฅ ์ฃผ์ธ์ด ์ง„์ •ํ•œ ์Šน์ž๊ฐ€ ๋˜๋Š” ํŒ์ผ๋“ฏ์‹ถ๋‹ค.. ใ…Žใ…Ž ํ•œํŽธ ํšŒ์‚ฌ์— ์˜ค๋žซ๋™์•ˆ GameStop์—์„œ ์ผํ•˜๋‹ค ์˜ค์‹ ๋ถ„์ด ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ ๊ทธ ๋ถ„์€ ‘๋”์ฐํ•˜๊ฒŒ๋„’ ์ž‘๋…„ 11์›”์— ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋˜ GameStop์ฃผ์‹์„ ๋ชฝ๋•… ๋‹ค ํŒ”์œผ์…จ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•œ๋‹ค.. (๋‘๋‹ฌ๋งŒ ๋ฒ„ํ…ผ์–ด๋„ ์€ํ‡ด๊ฐ์ธ๋ฐ ๋Œ€์„ฑํ†ต๊ณก๊ฐ์ด๋„ค..ํ‘..)

๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ์ผ์ด๋‚˜ ํ•ด์•ผ๊ฒ ๋‹ค..ใ…Žใ…Ž

2021.1

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